It’s that time of year. One of the most fun NFL playoff contests and the one I’ve had the most success in. Placed 4th and won $25,000 two years ago and wrote about it all on my old site:
2022 FFPC Playoff Challenge Write- up: Part 1, Part 2
Last year didn’t cash but had some awesome leverage opportunities in Miles Sanders (3.4% owned) and Deebo (3.0% owned). The Eagles went to the Super Bowl where Jalen Hurts rushed for 3TDs and Deebo put up 28.5 pts in Round 1 of the playoffs before dropping off the next two. Also had Christian Kirk (14.2% owned) last year in the flex. Went for 8-78-1 in Round 1 and 7-52-1 in Round 2 on 14 targets. The Jags almost advanced past the Chiefs in Round 2. Did a post-Round 1 write up last year if you want to continue down memory lane.
2023 FFPC Playoff Challenge - Week 1 Recap
This contest is all about finding a few good leverage spots. You don’t have to go crazy to win. The player pool is much much smaller than DFS. Here are the players I would consider.
Player Pool
QB
Generally want a QB to play 3-4 games. That’s either no bye week and gets you to at least the Conference Championships or a QB that gets you to the Super Bowl where players score is doubled.
Josh Allen - Best player on his team. Diggs has been meh with very few ceiling games this year. Mobile.
Hurts - Gets a lot of rushing TDs. AJ Brown is banged up. Eagles defense is poor so games are generally high scoring. Hurts, however, is also banged up.
Lamar - Baltimore is a Super Bowl favorite. Has a bye week but Lamar does it all. No other fantasy monsters on the team.
Purdy - SF has over a 50% chance of making it to the Super Bowl. Going Purdy means no McCaffrey which is scary though Purdy is in many ways the safest QB pick.
Dak - Scored more fantasy points than Lamar this year. Outside of SF, DAL is the NFC favorite to make it to the Super Bowl. Going Dak means no Ceedee who was the WR1 this year and has been on a tear.
Mahomes - The Chiefs have a lot of playoff experience and Mahomes has been one of the best players in the league. Kelce hasn’t been Kelce this year and no other KC pass-catcher gets a big chunk of volume making the QB a solid pick.
RB
McCaffrey - The RB1 this year and scored 100+ points more than the RB2.
Kyren - The RB6 despite missing 4 games. Over the last 5 games he has 20+ carries/game, 6 total TDs and 13 total receptions.
Mostert/Achane - The RB3 and RB4 in terms of PPG as both have missed time. If the Dolphins front run in Round 1 versus the Chiefs (30th against the run, 3rd against the pass) and take on Baltimore Round 2 (15th against the run, 2nd against the pass) one of these two could be optimal, especially if Tyreek is getting doubled or tripled. Mostert had 21TDs this year but isn’t 100%. Achane gets less opportunity but has done so so much with it.
White - The RB7 due in large part to a big receiving role (64 receptions vs. 67 for McCaffrey). Game-script proof and gets the soft Eagles defense Round 1. If they do get the 49ers Round 2 (if DET and DAL win, both favorites) the niners are 25th against the run and 4th against the pass. If TB got Dallas Round 2, they too are also more susceptible to the run (11th versus 5th for the pass).
Aaron Jones - 20+ carries and 100+ rushing yards in all 3 of GBs most recent games (though no TDs). They will ride him in Round 1 against the Cowboys.
Najee Harris - Terrible the first half of the season, PIT fires their OC and Harris takes off. Last 3 games rushing: 19-78-1 (vs. CIN), 27-112-2 (vs. SEA), 26-112-1 (vs. BAL JV). Jaylen Warren carries in those games: 8, 13, 9. BUF is 22nd against the rush and 7th against the pass. Want to beat BUF what do you do? Bleed clock and keep the ball away from Josh Allen.
WR
The WR pool is always much larger because in a loss teams generally throw more. If you can get a 10-150-1 from your WR before their team loses you are just fine.
Tyreek - WR1, Beast
CeeDee - WR2, Beast
Amon-Ra - WR3, Beast
A.J Brown - WR4, Beast but injured in their last game
Puka - WR5, Beast
Evans - WR7, Beast
Diggs - WR9 - Started the year super hot with 5 100+yard games in the first 6 weeks and 5 total TDs and hasn’t had a 100 yard games since…scoring only 3 more TDs over the last 13 games. Not the trend we want to see….we like to see players ramping up not winding down BUT this is the playoffs and Diggs is their top skill position player, despite James Cook coming on late.
Amari - WR16 - Week 15 went for 4-109-1, Week 16 went for 11-265-2 and sat out with injury Week 17 and 18. Houston is 21st against the pass and 3rd against the run and Flacco is airing the ball out with 42+ pass attempts in 4 of the 5 games he’s started.
Nico Collins - WR18 - In a must-win game vs. IND Week 18 he went for 9-195-1. Browns are #1 team in the NFL vs. the pass. HOWEVER, Browns at Home are 8-1 allowing opponents to score 13.9 PPG. Browns Away are 3-5 allowing 29.6 PPG.
DeVonta Smith - Only considered if A.J. Brown is out.
Cooper Kupp - Played 12 games this year and had 100+ yards in 4 of them. Cannot get doubled with Puka on the other side of the field. Kupp is a true alpha when healthy.
Zay Flowers - Last two games have been promising with 9-72-1 vs. SF Week 16 and 3-106-1 vs. MIA Week 17. He is the best available pass-catcher for the MVP QB.
Honorable Mentions (We can pretend they are considered but they are not): Jayden Reed, George Pickens, Jaylen Waddle, Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk
TE
Kelce - TE2, best pass-catcher on his team. Miami is 26th against opposing TEs. Issue is like Diggs he did his best work in the first-half of the year.
Njoku - TE5, 2nd best pass-catcher on his team and 100% healthy unlike the #1 option. Houston is 27th against opposing TEs. Unlike Kelce, Njoku arrow is up.
Goedert - Brown and Smith are banged up and PHI gets in shootouts. TB is 31st against opposing TEs.
Fade Candidates
Biggest underdogs Round 1:
PIT + 10 at BUF
GB +7.5 at DAL
MIA +4 at KC
LAR +3.5 at DET
PHI -3 at TB
CLE -3 at HOU
Most likely Round 2 matchups for BYE teams (if all favorites win):
CLE at BAL
Played Week 4 at CLE - Ravens won 28-3
Played Week 10 at BAL - Browns won 33-31
PHI at SF
Played Week 13 at PHI - SF won 42-19
Other most likely Round 2 (BAL)
HOU at BAL
Played Week 1 - Ravens won 25-9
MIA at BAL
Played Week 17 - Ravens won 56-17
Other most likely Round 2 (SF)
SF vs. LAR
Played Week 2 - SF won 30-23
Played Week 18 - SF rested starters
PIT and GB are clear fade targets. From there it is not so clear. The other four games are tight so you need to find two losers, preferably in low-scoring games. Given that BAL could end up a playing divisional rival with a top defense in the league in CLE, I think they need to be considered. Early leans for me would be TB, HOU or BAL.
Teams I am not considering - BUF, DAL, SF
Soft Fade Options
Kicker
Tucker BAL - Fading the Ravens is gutsy but they have a BYE and could play CLE Round 2 in a low-scoring affair. Not a lot of sexy players on the Ravens to pick - Just Lamar and Zay. PK2
Butker KC - KC only a 4-point favorite and the KC defense is 30th against the run going against serious speed in Mostert and Achane Round 1. Mahomes and Kelce aren’t as sexy of picks this year as in years past. PK5
Sanders MIA - 3rd most likely team to lose and PK9.
Boswell PIT - Should lose, PK19. Only a 35 pt total Round 1.
Carlson GB - Should lose, PK23….50 pt total Round 1.
McLaughlin TB - Should lose, PK20, 44 pt total Round 1.
Defense
CLE - The teams kicker is injured and their defense is good good. If you pick their defense you want CLE to lose but if they had a TD and won and played BAL and had another TD and lost a tight one you could be ok.
DET - If fading, Kicker is not an option. They go for it on 4th down all the time.
HOU - 44 points total. CLE offense isn’t really that great….I know he’s on a heater but Joe Flacco is the QB, the teams WR1 is banged up and Chubb is out for the year. If I told you that preseason this would be a lock pick.
Full Fade Options
PIT - The most obvious of all. Expected to lose by the largest margin. Skill position players are solid but too many of them to pick from: Harris, Johnson, Pickens and defense without Watt vs. Allen no thanks.
GB - The second best option - Similar story to PIT.
TB - PK and Kicker aren’t very good, I think they lose to PHI in a high-scoring game.
Big tier break
Dolphins - Tyreek will be popular vs. his former team but he could legit be tripled. Game script could force Tua to pass and KC can bleed clock with the best of them.
Lions - I like the Rams to win but in a loss many options to choose from. With LaPorta injured and carries split between Gibbs and Montgomery, Amon Ra will be heavily owned and rightfully so. If he doesnt blow up and Lions lose this hits hard.
Guess at Chalk Lineup
The Chalk lineup consists of the most owned players from every position.
Full Fade - GB, PIT
*Dependent on Amari, Brown active Round 1.
Toughest teams to call:
Rams - Kyren vs. Puka vs. Kupp vs. soft fade. The RB2 slot is tough to fill.
Browns - Amari vs. Njoku - If you don’t go Kelce, Njoku is the pick.
Chiefs - Kelce vs. KC soft fade - Kelce hasn’t been great, Rice ceiling isn’t near the other WRs we have in the lineup and Pacheco has been banged up and cannot be relied on if KC makes a run. Its Kelce or Butker for me.
TB - White, Evans, fades - If we went with Kupp instead of Kyren, White would be the next RB up for me. Evans has shown throughout his career how high his ceiling is and is certainly a consideration as well going up against the weak PHI secondary at home.
My First Run
Brock - 49ers go to the Super Bowl, Purdy (avg. 22 FPPG) outscores McCaffrey (24.6 FPPG)….See below this isn’t an insane take. Purdy essentially did just that over the back-half of the year. Purdy could also just outscore or outlast Lamar & Allen, the other most owned QBs.
White/Brown - Shootout Round 1 with the winner advancing to SF or DAL where they likely get put in a negative game-script and put up a big game.
Achane/Butker - MIA upsets KC Round 1, beating them on the ground (assuming Mostert is either inactive or not 100%). MIA goes to BAL Round 2. BAL defense is 15th against the run and 2nd vs. the pass. Soft fade BAL with their DST.
Collins/Njoku - Shootout Round 1 with the winner advancing to BUF in another shootout.
St. Brown/Kupp - Shootout Round 1 with the winner advancing to SF or DAL where they likely get put in a negative game-script and put up a big game.
Lamb - Free square
Diggs - BUF non-Allen pick
Hard fade - GB, PIT (though Najee and Aaron Jones were considered)