FFPC Playoff Contest Lineup
Coming off 4th place last year there is a lot of pressure to nail it this year. Feeling pretty damn good about what we put together. Here is the lineup and quick hits on the logic.
Josh Allen - Last year we got there with 2 games of Allen. This year I think we get 3 or 4. Not messing around.
Miles Sanders - This is a big zag from the field. Similar to how last year we took Aaron Jones while the field largely took Adams. If the Eagles only play one game Sanders could outscore the other PHI skill position players. Most of the field will go Brown, some will go Smith, few will go Sanders. Additionally, if they play multiple games, Sanders might trail the other guys but would be a differentiator for us in the Super Bowl and the 2x points. I like this leverage.
Ekeler - I like the Chargers to go far. If they do, Ekeler will do well, if they don’t he will do well. Chalk I’ll eat.
Jefferson - Kupp a no brainer last year. Jefferson a no brainer this year.
Chase - Could have a quiet game vs. the Ravens but the appeal of a shootout vs. the Bills round 2 I can’t pass up on. The ceiling!
Deebo - The biggest risk of them all. I know I said Jefferson was this years Kupp but it really could be Cmac. He should be 70% owned but I’m choosing to fade for two reasons.
Mitchell is back. He runs well, is a good change of pace and should take 8-10 carries from Cmac a game.
I think the 49ers view Deebo as their secret weapon. I expect him to be used a lot. He’s coming off essentially 4 weeks off as he healed from an ankle injury and dipped his toe in the water week 18.
Bottom line is I think Deebo will be heavily involved and similar to Sanders, I think that while he could trail Cmac in points, if they get to the Super Bowl, Deebo could have a huge game and no one would be surprised.
Lamb - I think the Cowboys win round 1 and lose round 2. Only other consideration from Dallas was Pollard but ultimately I think Lamb will get 8-10 receptions in any and all Dallas games played. Dak has not looked good but Tampa Bay is ranked 6th vs. opposing RBs and 22nd vs. opposing WRs.
Kirk - He just got paid paid. That’s it. I think the Jags lose at home but their big investment in Kirk pushes the ball his way. If the Jags advance, I will be one of the few teams with a pass catcher so while Etienne may be the guy to have round 1, in a shootout with KC I think I would catch up on the field.
Andrews - Just had a big game with Huntley at QB, effectively had a bye as he sat week 18. Has had a down year but this is the playoffs. Just like in this contest you play the best plays, in the playoffs the Ravens should get the ball to their best player. TE premium don’t forget it. 8-100 would be amazing.
Kelce - You either play Mahomes/Diggs or Allen/Kelce. Anything else and you are playing multiple entries. Kelce has had an unreal year and any success KC has is very very likely to be through him. TE premium don’t forget it.
Myers - Got nothing for you head back to camp.
Bucs DEF - At home, Dak hasn’t been great. With the tighter spread on this game this will be a contrarian pick. If the Bucs win I think it will be because their defense puts up a 20 spot so maybe I’m not even dead at that point.
Full Fades - Dolphins, Giants - Saquon is a tough fade, especially given that the Giants are a very popular underdog pick this week vs. the Vikings. Vikings have looked bad, are at home and it’s no secret the gameplan should be force Danny Dimes to make plays. If the Giants get down, Saquon could be iced out.
Really the bet is this: Assuming the teams lose that I think will lose (Jaguars, Ravens, Giants, Dolphins, Bucs, Seahawks) Kirk and Andrews will outscore Saquon, Tyreek, Waddle, Metcalf, Lockett, Walker, Evans, Godwin, Fournette.
However given the big contrarian swings I’m taking with Sanders and Deebo, that may not even be the case.
Good luck to all.