20 Drafts Deep: My BBM6 Player Targets and Round-by-Round Thoughts
As July comes to a close and as the first pre-season game kicks off tonight its officially draft season. The casuals are climbing out of their holes and starting to peep rankings and listen to podcasts telling them who they must draft and who they shouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole.
As things ramp up and hosts of shows listen to other shows and read the same beat reports etc., group-think and over-analysis take over and a sort of consensus forms that year in and year out is eventually proven wrong. Last year is probably the best example of this as you had a general consensus form that Saquon was washed and he proved to be the best player in all of Fantasy available in the 3rd Round.
The best part to me about fantasy football is having a view and being able to watch that view play out on the big screen. Its not like boxing though where its clean and definitive. With football, there are all these ways you can pretty much be wrong but still be right (good process as they say). For example last year if you drafted a ton of Godwin you were super right… but he got hurt and missed the rest of the year. He was incredible so you were right right? But if you were out on Godwin you were also right because he got injured and missed a lot of the year, probably a concern of yours and part of the reason you were out on him.
This can also be non-injury related to. For example if you claimed Tutu Atwell on waivers and you put him in your lineup and he had a bad game, you can find ways to tell yourself it was a genius spot start. Maybe he got 9 targets and couldn’t do anything with them, or maybe he was overthrown on a wide open TD, or maybe he drew a couple PI calls that should’ve been catches. Lots of ways to stay right.
Because of this everyone in the fantasy football space feels like they are right all the time. So what you get around this time of year is a lot of people speaking with conviction telling you who to pick and why.
I tell people one thing a year - The League Winning Stack for 2025 (Link for 2025 pick)
I gave out the pick this year early, on July 14th, before training camp and have seen everyone jump on board the train since. While everyone is on board the stack at cost, they are still not high enough, let that be known. However, this is not like last year when I picked Burrow and Tee Higgins and folks called me crazy. Generally this year people like the pick. It’s because of this that I wanted to get out in the open some other takes I had for you the people.
I no longer max the BBM after doing so for BBM4, advancing 25ish teams only to have them all wither away because I didn’t have Amari Cooper Week 16 when he went nuclear. That being said I like drafting and want to get my guys when I do so. I am drafting with conviction this year and have some very clear thoughts on how I see the board and which players I like and do not.
Rounds 1-4
Round 1 is a tale of two halves. If you get a top 7 pick you get a Tier 1 WR (Chase, Jefferson, Lamb) or a Tier 1 RB (Robinson, Barkley, Gibbs, McCaffrey). When I get a top 7 pick I go RB 100% of the time. I think the Tier 1 RBs this year are legit 20 point a week guys and I think that is too valuable in a half-ppr format and opens you up later in the draft. With a workhorse RB filling out 1 RB slot, you can now build a team of RBs with different profiles to fill that 2nd RB slot and shoot for upside. I like that a lot better than going with a Tier 1 WR who fills 1 of 3 WR slots 60-70% of the weeks.
If my first round pick is slot 8-12 I lean Nico and Nabers and will take some Amon Ra, Achane or Henry. I have a full fade on for the below guys (at cost), primarily because I like Ladd over all of them.
Puka - He’s amazing when he is on the field healthy with Stafford. That just doesn’t feel like the norm. Even when they take the field together one is banged up. In addition to the health concerns of Puka and Stafford, Puka is now has Adams opposite him, a much more attractive option to throw to than 2024 Kupp. If something were to happen to Stafford (he is already dealing with a back issue) the backup, Jimmy G, has some history with Adams. Sure that history with the Raiders isn’t great but its something and sometimes something is enough to be the first read for the QB.
Brian Thomas - We have seen a lot of Trevor Lawrence and I don’t think he will support a top-end WR1. The Jags have a deep RB room and they just used an incredible amount of draft capital on Travis Hunter, which the coaching staff will feel the need to justify scheming him touches.
Drake London - Penix aired it out a few games at the end of the season throwing people off. This team will run the football A LOT. Penix throwing deep is a Mooney play to me, not a Drake London play.
Why Ladd? - 82-1,149-7 as a rookie and as I’ve said for years, teams show you how they really feel in the playoffs. Who did the team lean on when the season was on the line. Ladd’s first playoff game - 9-197-1 on 14 targets. Compared to Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, Puka and Amon Ra, Ladd has zero target competition and they have a rookie RB. He is going to ball out this year and is the easiest click in Round 2. If he is gone I go Higgins or JT.
Round 3 kind of sucks but to me its about skipping elite QB. Here I generally fill out the WR room with a reach on Pickens if on the left side of the board since he won’t make it back, or I go Adams, or JSN.
Round 4 is a Pickens click
A quick note on Jamo - I like the idea because I am in on Goff, Gibbs and Amon Ra based on the culture of the team being “run it up”. They literally never stop trying to score and its incredible. I just think a 4th round price tag for a guy as unproven as Jamo is is too high. If he was going in the 6th he would’ve likely been in the mix for the League Winning Stack pick but his ADP is nutty based on his production and the fact that there are a lot of other guys. To my earlier point about teams leaning on their best guys in the playoffs, take a look at what the Lions did through the air in their Divisional Round playoff loss to the Commanders last year:
Rounds 5-8
Jaylen Waddle in the 5th is almost as easy as Pickens in the 4th. Jonnu and his 20% target share are gone, Waddle is good good and Tyreek is older and generally a wild card. If you don’t recall when the Dolphins got eliminated from the playoffs last year Tyreek said in his post-game presser “I’m out” implying he was done with the organization. Not good!
Because I am in on Waddle I am generally out on Smith, Odunze, and Hunter. Some thoughts on them:
Smith - 4th fiddle to Barkley, Brown and Hurts himself.
Odunze - Bears offense still unproven, price is high, can’t tell how good he is.
Hunter - Lot of thoughts on Hunter. I played two ways (WR & CB) in high school, being that it was a small school so we needed to have a lot of guys play both sides of the ball. I was a tall skinny guy and I had to tackle much bigger guys (including Royce Freeman). I never got hurt making a tackle and I never got tired playing both sides. I view his injury risk as slightly higher just because he will be on the field for more plays, not because he has to tackle.
The big thing with Hunter is you have to trust the coaching staff to be smart enough to use him correctly. If they try to limit his snaps and give him a breather by taking him out on run plays or designed plays to Thomas for example, his presence on the field will in itself key the defense. I think for Hunter to truly hit at his ADP he will have to play a full allotment of snaps at WR. I don’t think he will and sure he will end the year with a ridiculously high TPRR but it will be driven by low RR not by ridiculous get open ability and QB trust like Puka’s (my view).
In the 6th, 7th and 8th I am generally trying to build WR depth before it falls off a cliff. My favorites are Deebo, Jennings, and Reed. These are all guys who have shown elite play-making ability and could be the focal point of their respective offenses passing attacks.
Deebo has gotten older, possibly lost some speed, but he’s with a new team. He is rejuvenated and thrilled to be on a contender, with an incredibly athletic QB, on an offense that scores a lot. Deebo went in the 2nd round last year and didn’t perform, but neither did the 49ers.
Reed has led the Packers in receiving the last two years and we expect them to throw more this year. I think taking Golden over Reed is an unnecessary risk. If Golden gives you what Reed has the last two years that would be a great year and they are the same price.
Jennings balled out last year, clearly has a rapport with Purdy, and is in a better situation this year with Deebo gone & Aiyuk hurt. If you prefer Ricky P because “he took lead to the chest…got his gun back and shot the other guy” I won’t talk you out of it.
Rounds 9-12
This is where ADP goes out the window and you need to get your guys. My guys here are:
Jaylen Warren - Great pass-catching RB who I think will be leaned on heavily. Only competition is a 3rd round rookie who has had early issues in camp in pass-pro. I don’t think this will be split-backfield.
Tyrone Tracy - He’s good, I’ve seen it and I refuse to believe a fourth round RB pick is going to be able to take the job from him. Skattebo has been “flashing in camp” …against the Giants defense…ok!
Quentin Johnston - I’ve already flagged this one. I think he will have a great year, and am not buying any of the Tre Harris taking QJ’s role nonsense.
There are a number of TE’s I like here - Ferguson to stack with Pickens and Dak if I can get him and Goedert feels like a great value as well. Goedert had a great start to the year last year before he got hurt and when he returned he didn’t do much until the playoffs.
Note: I am always trying to get Dak but it’s difficult as the Lamb drafter will often reach to get him or QB-less teams will take him to stack with Ferguson later. I’m at 15% but looking for more.
Rounds 13-16
Like I said before, by now ADP is out the window and you got to get your guys. My guys here:
Bigsby - He flashed last year and is the cheapest of the 3 Jags RBs.
Allgeier - Gets work, has run for 600 yards the last two years and is a league winner if anything happens to Bijan. Discount David Montgomery.
McMillan - He was the Bucs WR3 last year and put up a great year as a rookie - 37-461-8. Entering year 2 and with Godwin already banged up he could still be the WR3…possibly WR2 if Egbuka (who gets drafted in the 7th Round) takes time to get adjusted to the NFL (very common for rookies). Any injury to Evans (which happens every year) and McMillan is a smash. Incredible pick in the 15th.
Darnold - I haven’t been taking as much recently but he was legit last year. The one-liner against Darnold is he hasn’t done well when facing pressure and he now has a bad o-line vs. last year when he had a good o-line. Silly….when he faced pressure last year he did poorly because he faced it less often…..it was a surprise and would catch him off guard. When the norm is pressure you adjust and condition yourself to get the ball out quicker, and that is what he will do. Ken Walker will help with play-action and he has great short-to-mid area receivers in Kupp and JSN.
Chig - I’ve already flagged this one. I am so so so in on Chig. He flashes, this offense could take a big step forward and little target competition.
Rounds 17-18
Here you got to get different. Unfortunately some times you get carried away Rounds 1-16 and when you zoom out you realize you have dug a hole at a position group and simply need a safe body with some semblance of a floor to protect you from having weekly 0’s hit your lineup - Think Dalton Schultz at TE, Calvin Austin II or Coker at WR (which I do quite a bit), Slough or Wilson at QB.
The better shots to take are ambiguous RB rooms or pass-catchers off the board. I think its good process to grab one of Corum/Hunter or grab Giddens or Lloyd (which I did a few times pre-groin injury), but I generally click the following guys:
Ben Sinnott - Ertz is 34 and last year played all 17 games and had a great year going 66-654-7. The two years before that he played 10 games and 7 games respectively. He was wearing down until last year he wasn’t. Because of that Sinnott got no run last year. He was a rookie 2nd round pick everyone thought would be involved and he wasn’t. I think he’s a great off-the board flyer to take at TE. Even if Ertz stays healthy and is the guy, Sinnott could take over at the end of the year while the Commanders go on cruise control with the playoffs approaching. Sinnott flat out taking the job isn’t out of the question either. 34 is really old, hard to imagine Ertz can hold off a 23 year old 2nd round pick in his second year coming off a year on the sidelines. He’s got to be hungry for some playing time.
Kendre Miller - He looks good (eye test is everything guys) and I see a path to significant opportunity. The Saints are going to be one of the worst teams in the league and Kamara is on the last year of his 2 year deal signed last year. If the Saints can get something for him in a trade we could see that happen. Also possible Kamara doesn’t want to be run into the ground when he could theoretically get one more contract. If Kamara is out of the way, I think Miller is the guy. Drafted in the 3rd Round two years ago, battled injuries both years, but still got on the field when healthy. Miller is now healthy and in the last year of his rookie contract. Time to show out and time for the Saints to see what they have. They drafted a RB in the 6th this year (Neal) but I think Kendre gets run over him. Big upside swing here.
Jordan Whittington - Adams and Puka are two incredible WRs and Tutu is the deep threat 3rd. Whittington is the direct Adams or Puka replacement which is the valuable role in this offense. Were either of them to miss any time, Whittington would be starting in redraft lineups. Thats something you can’t say about all replacement level WRs. He is talented and has shown that when opportunity has presented itself before. Great flyer as a WR7 and even better that he’s only drafted ~ 5% of the time.